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The Next Hundred Million
''The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050'' is a non-fiction book by American economist and demographer Joel Kotkin. The author outlines a world in which the growing US population reaches four hundred million by 2050. He argues that the US will become more diverse (with a trend towards ethnic/racial mixing) and more competitive, and he predicts that the US will experience continual economic growth that advances the populations' standard of living. Kotkin writes that the US "should emerge by mid-century as the most affluent, culturally rich and successful nation in human history."
==Contents==
Kotkin focuses on residential patterns among Americans. Contrasting suburbs and smaller cities with large metropolises, Kotkin argues against the thesis of urban theorists such as Jane Jacobs. Kotkin writes that suburbs provide diversity and new ideas as immigrants assimilate into American society. He identifies issues with large major cities such as San Francisco, California and New York City, New York. He views those areas as caught inside "the glamorous road to decline" with less incentive for ordinary, working class Americans to stay and with social policies benefiting the upper crust.
Kotkin envisions a future of "smart sprawl" in which medium to low density suburbs without central dependence on big cities draw in increasing numbers of people. He writes that "in a dramatic change, the new suburbs will be far more diverse ethnically than those of the past."〔
Kotkin concludes the book by aruging:
"None of it will be easy, and certainly much can go wrong. Still we have no reason to lose faith in the possibilities of the future. For all its problems, America remains, as the journalist John Gunther suggested over sixty years ago, 'lousy with greatness.’ The elements essential to forge a successful nation of four hundred million remain very much within our reach, there for the taking."〔
抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』
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